Asteroid or comet impact

On average, there are “91 deaths every year from asteroid strikes”, which represents 1 micromort per lifetime; see: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20120222-waiting-for-a-rock-to-fall.

Problem

Causal logic

An asteroid could strike the Earth and cause major damage to human society and the biosphere.

Evidence

The statistical frequency of asteroid impacts and their basic energies and effects are well understood. However, most large near-Earth objects have been identified and none of those pose a threat.

Scope

The damage from an asteroid impact depends on its size. Larger, more destructive asteroids are rarer. Small asteroid impacts are more likely, but they would do little damage except in the very unlikely event that they land on a metropolis.

Solutions

Organizations

External links